Flawed processes that “feel right” are prevalent within organisations, even when there is little evidence that they work. Risk management is not immune. Some of our standard tools and practices may be giving false comfort simply because they look and feel right. Risk teams need stronger decision analysis capabilities to challenge this kind of thinking: not just asking whether a proposal feels plausible, but whether it is supported by clear logic and evidence.

Ideology (our values, assumptions, and mental shortcuts) shapes what we notice, trust, and consider acceptable, especially when data is limited or uncertainty is high. While ideology can enable speed and coherence, unchallenged or dominant worldviews create blind spots, making it critical for organisations and risk teams to surface assumptions, encourage diverse perspectives, and question the stories they tell about themselves.